Tim Scott: Electoral Circumstance

2014 Election

Image taken from ElectionProjection.com

The 2014 election in South Carolina was not your typical mid-term election.  It was actually a special election competing for the final 2 years remaining on Jim DeMint's original term from his 2010 election. DeMint left his seat in the Senate to take over as head of the Heritage Foundation because, as he was quoted in the "Wall Street Journal" as saying, he took the job because "he sees it as a vehicle to popularize Conservative ideas in a way that connects with a broader public."  Scott was then appointed by Governor Nikki Haley, a Republican, to fill the vacated spot.  Scott started his election bid by easily defeating Randall Young in the primary, with the "New York Times" reporting a 90% to 10% split.  Scott then defeated Joyce Dickerson in the general election, once again winning easily, in a margin reported by RealClearPolitics as being 61% to 39%.

Financial Status

Figure taken from OpenSecrets.com

For the last election cycle, Scott raised just shy of $7 million dollars, but spent about only $4.4 million of that, leaving him with almost $2.5 million cash on hand with a reelection bid coming up in 2016.  Not surprisingly, Scott has accumulated most of his money from individual contributors, with large contributions making up the vast majority of that portion.  Scott also received over $2.5 million from PACs during the election cycle.  Sector-wise, Scott's top three contributors came from the investment, real estate, and insurance sectors.  Being a former real estate and insurance
agent, this connection is not surprising.  

Looking Ahead

With money left over from his previous election and no viable competitor, from within or outside the party, out there yet, Scott's fortunes for reelection in 2016 look bright.  South Carolina is also a historically red state, voting Republican in every presidential primary since 1964 except in 1976, so the political climate of the state heavily favors Scott. Scott was quoted by the political publication the "Washington Examiner" as saying he intended to be elected to two more 6-year terms before exiling himself from politics, so it is clear he will run.  If he is to run, I believe he will once again safely be reelected into the Senate.  However, some political "experts" and others in the media see potentially bigger and better things on the horizon for Scott.  While being listed by the RNC in several straw polls as a presidential candidate in 2016, Scott's name as a potential vice presidential have been much more common, and realistic.

However, Scott will still have several key issues to deal with during the 2016 election cycle.  As the "Huffington Post" shows from the last presidential election cycle, the economy will play a key role, as usual.  Being a presidential election year, I think many Congressional races around the country will become heavily nationalized, with South Carolina no exception.  Immigration will most likely continue to be an issue, and it is a top one in the state today as evidenced by this "New York Times" piece.  An article by the "Island Packet," a local South Carolina newspaper, shows Scott as being adamant and strong in his stance on this issue as well.  I predict other relevant issues to include Obamacare, depending on the Supreme Court's ruling, and the Middle East.  All-in-all, Scott is a rapidly-rising star within the Republican party due to his youth, race, and relate-ability.  While I find the chance of him being a realistic presidential candidate slim, the 2008 election shows that a candidate can get past a lack of political experience.  I think him being a vice presidential candidate is highly probable though.  His youth, popularity, and race are three large factors in a potential VP nomination.  Regardless, the future is clearly looking bright for him.

2016 Republican Presidential Ticket?